In his January State of the Union address, President Obama said that natural gas could be a low-emission “bridge fuel” that could allow the U.S. to help slow global warming. Demonstrators at Sunday’s climate protest in New York apparently didn’t get the talking points memo from the White House — many carried signs calling for an end to fracking.
The reality is that shale gas probably won’t have much effect on climate change either way, according to a new study published Wednesday. “If you increase the use of gas, that will actually delay the deployment of renewable energy,” said Christine Shearer of the University of California, Irvine, one of the authors of the study.
Shearer and her colleagues modeled how the consequences for the climate in the next forty years would differ depending on how big the gas boom gets, how quickly solar technology develops, and what policies the federal government adopts to slow global warming. Their forecasts showed that the more natural gas is available, the less the energy sector will rely on renewable resources, and that the supply of natural gas will not have much effect on greenhouse gas emissions.
Abundant gas reserves will lower electricity bills and encourage people and businesses to burn more electricity, the authors find. Also, cheap energy from gas will make building new solar panels and wind turbines less attractive to investors. The paper predicts that a larger supply of gas might reduce or add to emissions slightly, depending on how well companies can keep gas from leaking.
These results largely confirm work published earlier this year by a pair of researchers at Duke University and a report published last year collating predictions from academics, government officials and the industry.
The authors did not consider how U.S. gas production would affect emissions in other countries, which is also a matter of debate.